Nearly every gym business plan contains the same table: a member count climbing month after month, multiplied by one subscription price, minus rent and two salaries. The table is arithmetically consistent and completely wrong, because the member number in it came from nowhere — it was written because it makes the rest of the table work.
The plan that actually helps you — whether you are showing it to a lender or writing it only for yourself — starts from a physical constraint you cannot negotiate with: the floor area and the peak hours. Every number after that is derived from it rather than invented.
Start from capacity, not ambition
A gym is not an online store; it cannot serve an unlimited number of people. Roughly one square metre of training floor serves one member present at a time, and the people present at peak hour are a small fraction of your total subscribers — between 5% and 10% at most gyms. That fraction, not the size of the market, is what sets your member ceiling.
Run it in one direction only: training area ÷ space needed per person = peak capacity. Then peak capacity ÷ peak attendance rate = the maximum active members you can carry before crowding complaints start. The number that comes out is usually far smaller than the one in the first draft, and that is precisely its value.
| Input | Example | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Net training area | 400 m² after reception and changing rooms | The floor plan, not the total on the lease |
| Space per person | 4 m² for free weights, 2 m² for cardio | The equipment mix you chose |
| Peak capacity | ≈ 130 people at once | The division above |
| Peak attendance rate | 8% of active members | Real check-in data after 3 months |
| Active member ceiling | ≈ 1,600 members | Capacity ÷ peak rate |
The cost floor your price has to stand on
A price is not chosen by looking at the gym next door. It is chosen by knowing what one member costs you per month before you earn anything. Add up every fixed monthly cost, divide it by the member count you realistically expect at that stage — not by the ceiling — and you get a floor no promotional offer may drop beneath.
- Rent, electricity and water — the largest fixed line, and it does not shrink in a quiet month.
- Base salaries for reception and full-time trainers, including social insurance.
- Scheduled equipment maintenance, amortised monthly rather than booked as a shock when it happens.
- Operating subscriptions: the management system, internet, payment-gateway fees.
- Marketing as a recurring monthly line, not a launch campaign spent once and forgotten.
- A depreciation provision: the machine you paid for today gets replaced in seven years, and that money has to be set aside starting now.
That last line is the one nearly every plan omits, and it is a common reason gyms stumble in their fourth year: revenue covered operations exactly, and nothing was left for the day the equipment had to be replaced.
A twelve-month cash forecast, not an annual profit table
Gyms rarely close because they are unprofitable on paper; they close because cash ran out in one particular month. An annual profit figure hides that completely, and a monthly cash view exposes it. Build the table month by month with just four rows to begin with.
- Cash in from new subscriptions, kept separate from renewal cash — the first depends on marketing and the second on retention, and they are different levers.
- Non-subscription cash: personal training, point-of-sale retail, locker rental.
- Fixed costs exactly as listed above, with no seasonal optimism applied.
- The cumulative closing balance each month — the only row that tells you when you need funding and how much.
Break-even: the number and the date
Break-even is two numbers, not one: how many active members cover your fixed costs, and in which month you expect to reach them at the sign-up rate you assumed. The first is simple arithmetic — fixed costs ÷ (average revenue per member − variable cost per member). The second is what determines how much working capital you must open with.
And add a third row most people leave out: the churn rate. If you lose 5% of your members a month, you need 5% in new sign-ups every month just to stand still. A plan that assumes net growth without subtracting churn describes a gym that does not exist.
Keeping the plan alive after opening day
The difference between a useful plan and a document in a desk drawer is where the numbers come from. Before opening they are all assumptions; after opening every number should come from the operation itself. The check-in log gives you the real peak rate, the membership records give you average revenue per member and the renewal rate, and the payments report gives you collected versus billed revenue — which are never the same number.
This is exactly where a management system becomes a financial tool rather than only an administrative one: when member, attendance, subscription and payment data live in one place, the monthly plan review is a matter of reading a report instead of collecting paper from three people. Gyms that keep this data in separate spreadsheets do not review their plan monthly — they review it when they get a surprise.